STEVE ROBERTS: The hammering has stopped

Published 10:18 am Tuesday, July 30, 2024

Can Kamala Harris beat Donald Trump? If not, can she at least help Democrats capture the House of Representatives and establish guardrails around a second Trump term?

Those are unanswerable questions right now. But a few factors are undeniable. Harris is not Joe Biden. She is 59, not 81. She doesn’t stumble on stairs. She is not shackled by a dismal debate performance. She deprives Trump of his single best argument, Biden’s age and frailty.

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In fact, the age issue now focuses on Trump, who is 78 and would be older than Biden is today if he were to complete a second term. As Rachel Maddow put it on MSNBC, “The old man in the race now is Donald Trump.”

With Biden’s withdrawal, the biggest feeling among Democrats is simply relief. For the last month, they’ve been shocked and traumatized. When you’ve been hitting yourself on the head with a hammer for that long, it feels really good when you stop.

That relief has triggered a burst of energy. The Harris campaign announced they had raised $81 million during her first day as a candidate, which The New York Times described as “one of the greatest gushers of cash of all time.”

Until now, Democrats have been facing a severe intensity gap. An NBC poll recently reported that while 71% of Republicans were “satisfied” with Trump leading their ticket, only 33% of Democrats felt that way about Biden.

Intensity matters deeply in politics. Not all votes are equal. Energized supporters are more likely to give money, talk to their friends and find a way to vote, even if it’s raining or the babysitter doesn’t show up.

Harris is unlikely to convince a single red-hatted Trump loyalist to switch sides, but she doesn’t have to. Her task is to motivate and inspire the Democratic base, which is a proven majority in most of the critical swing states.

Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Arizona all backed Biden in 2020. All have Democratic governors, and six of their eight senators are Democrats as well. Georgia and Nevada, which also favored Biden, have Republican governors but four Democratic senators.

Rep. Dean Phillips, D-Minn., told Politico that the sense of relief in party ranks after the president’s decision was “really palpable … It has lifted the angst that was like a pall over our party.” Former Rep. Dale Kildee, D-Mich., stated: “I love Joe Biden, but I think it’s a fact that we were having a difficult time activating our base. We have that problem solved.”

Well, not quite. Harris is far from an ideal candidate. She ran a dreadful race for the party’s nomination in 2020 and now faces the classic dilemma that plagues any vice president who tries to claim the Oval Office. You have to defend your record while arguing you’re a change agent at the same time. That’s an inherently mixed message, and she cannot escape the administration’s damaging reputation on inflation and immigration.

Harris doesn’t have Biden’s age problems, but she comes with vulnerabilities of her own. Republican talking points are already branding her “an extreme San Francisco progressive” and highlighting her support for left-wing ideas like the Green New Deal and “Medicare for All.”

Like others who served in the Biden White House, she has to answer legitimate questions about why they concealed evidence of the president’s obvious decline. And Trump, who used sexist tropes to help sink Hillary Clinton in 2016, is at it again, saying, “I call her Laughing Kamala. Have you watched her laugh? She is crazy.”

But Harris also brings assets to the battle that Biden lacks. As a woman, she is far better equipped to emphasize the issue of abortion, which the Republicans fear so strongly that they barely mentioned the word during their convention. As a seasoned prosecutor, she is well-placed to remind voters that she’s facing a convicted felon.

An attack ad she produced five years ago is now going viral with this prescient message: “I prosecuted sex predators. Trump is one. I shut down for-profit scam colleges. He ran one. I held big banks accountable. He’s owned by them. I’m not just prepared to take on Trump, I’m prepared to beat him.”

That’s not at all clear yet. The election is 100 days away, and as The Economist puts it, “Ms. Harris still has room to rise — or fall.” But with her at the top of the ticket, Democrats are in better shape than they were just a few days ago. The hammering has stopped.