ATLANTA — The U.S. Census Bureau will cut counting operations short by a month, leaving Georgia cities and counties scrambling to reach their residents.

What was scheduled to be three months left of census outreach has been cut short by four weeks. Instead of an Oct. 31 stop date, counting will end Sept. 30. Advocates and organizers are worried that, coupled with the impact of the pandemic, communities will be undercounted.

The decennial U.S. Census will determine where more than a trillion dollars of federal funding is doled out across the nation and political representation of communities on every level — from congressional seats down to local elected officials. Census self-response rates have fallen nationally as well as in Georgia — enough to cause serious concerns the census could end up being an inaccurate depiction of the country.

The pandemic pressed pause on outreach efforts that had been in the works by cities, counties and advocacy organizations for years. Now, with little notice on the decision to end the counting sooner than expected, organizers see an undercount as nearly inevitable.

Nationwide, about 40% of the population is still yet to be counted.

Rebecca DeHart, executive director of Fair Count — a nonpartisan, nonprofit organization focused on getting a complete census count — said the pandemic heightens the stakes of getting a full and accurate count of residents. Particularly in rural areas hit hardest by COVID-19, funds from the census will play a large role in recovery, she said.

“If a county gets wiped out by COVID-19 and they did not fill out the census, over the next 10 years not only are they going to be recovering from a pandemic,” she said. “But they’re going to have to do so with underfunded schools, underfunded Medicaid, underfunded Medicare, underfunded hospitals, roads and infrastructure. It has the possibility to create a perfect storm of setting already undercounted communities back even further.”

Rural communities with naturally decreasing populations and minority populations are at the highest risk of being overlooked, leading to severe underfunding in areas where it is needed the most.

Before the pandemic, the Urban Institute, a Washington, D.C.-based social policy think tank predicted one of the largest undercounts this year — particularly in states with large populations of historically undercounted minorities. These “hard to count” communities make up nearly half of Georgia’s population.

The last-minute changes may cause errors in accuracy that cannot be corrected. Those tasked with promoting the census warn there are no “do-overs.” Georgians will be living out the impact of the census count in real time for the next decade.

An already pandemic-impacted process

Michele NeSmith is the research and policy development director at the Association County Commissioners of Georgia — which represents all of the 159 counties in the state.

As of Thursday, the self-response rates of Georgia counties — especially rural counties — are low, she said. About 90 counties have passed the 50% response rate mark, with 69 counties trailing behind. Of those with low rates, most are in rural areas. Remaining counties with concerning numbers also have higher poverty rates.

“There’s a serious risk of an undercount,” she said. “Especially in rural communities.”

The outlook for Georgia cities is not much better. Holger Loewendorf, research manager for the Georgia Municipal Association, said as of the beginning of the week, 424 cities — 79% — have a response rate below the Georgia state response average while 276 cities — 51% — have a response rate below 50%.

“I think that our member cities did as much as they possibly could,” he said. “But at the same time if you look at our response rates, they’re not great — in a national context and as far as the cities are concerned.”

Both NeSmith and Loewendorf are members of the governor’s Complete Count Committee — a task force aimed at ensuring every Georgia resident is counted in the census.

But the pandemic halted statewide efforts in multiple ways. Money was allocated to provide additional computers and internet connectivity to libraries across the state — which shuttered for weeks.

Outreach strategy has completely shifted.

“Now that we can’t do public events, how do we still promote the census?” Loewendorf said. “Under normal conditions you would have had the spring through the summer to organize barbecues and festivals. You could have had tables at every single public event handing out reminders, physical reminders. None of that was possible.”

That’s why the U.S. Census Bureau follow-up period for households that have not yet responded is so critical, DeHart, with Fair Count, said. Door knockers are set to start going from home to home Aug. 11, but on a much shorter timeline than everyone expected.

“Now that we have learned that it’s going to be cut by 31 days,” she said. “Giving us the shortest non-response follow-up period in modern times, and during a pandemic makes it seem very difficult to be able to achieve what we need to.”

Aixa Pascual, managing director of civic engagement and advocacy for the Latin American Association, said minority communities — that are historically undercounted and have been disproportionately impacted by the pandemic — are already overwhelmed with concerns of paying rent, sending children to school and so many other obstacles.

“There’s a lot of stuff going on in 2020 that dilutes the messaging of the census,” she said. “You wouldn’t even think that we’re in the midst of a census because with COVID-19, the economic recession, the protests and the social unrest that we’re seeing in the country, and the presidential elections — the census has been lost in everything that’s going on.”

Pascual said she does not know if eight weeks is enough time to make a full or even adequate count possible.

‘A result we’ll have to live with’

To put the power of the census into perspective, NeSmith usually asks people if they’ve seen a school with trailer-like classrooms outside.

“That is because the school, when they were planning how large they needed to make it, they didn’t have good data,” she said. 

The U.S. Census Bureau estimated that around one million children younger than the age of 5 were not counted in the 2010 census.

Loewendorf points to infrastructure.

“What roads you’ve lately been driving on and what condition are they in?” he asked. “Census-based funding has something to do with that.”

Weather forecasters are predicting an “extremely active” hurricane season on top of the ongoing pandemic.

“When we go in to effectuate change after a disaster after a natural disaster. We use census figures to decide how much federal funds will go back down to that county to rebuild,” DeHart said. “If that county only responded to the census at a 40% response rate, then they’re going to see a lot less funding that could come down in a time when it’s needed the most.”

The decennial U.S. Census will have long-lasting effects that will not be hard to see. Rural counties — specifically in Southwest and Middle Georgia — have seen natural population loss, NeSmith said. Compounded with an undercount, the impact could be “dramatic.”

“If you have bad census number it’s not just going to be the money, it’s the planning, it’s the representation,” she said. “It’s basically whatever you were told that you would need to move your community forward in the next 10 years has been taken away.”

As of Aug. 5, the national self-response rate was about 63% while Georgia’s self-response rate fell four points behind.

“There’s no do-over if we do have errors,” Loewendorf said. “This is a result we’ll have to live with for 10 years.”