Sarah Warrender | The Valdosta Daily TimesThe population within cities and counties across the SunLight Project coverage area have had their ups and downs, but most have a slow and steady growth.

MOULTRIE — Population matters.

Just ask Colquitt County Administrator Chas Cannon.

Population affects anything from the representation in state government to state and federal grants, such as money for roads, that are awarded based on a city or county’s number of residents, he said.

“A lot of state money is divvied up by population,” Cannon said. 

A growing population means the tax base is growing, he said. Alternately, more population means more pressure on local infrastructure.

Colquitt County first appeared on the U.S. Census at the time of the Civil War, when 1,316 residents were counted in 1860.

It remained in the four-digit range through 1890, when there were 4,794 people. That number more than doubled 10 years later to 13,636 at the turn of the century. 

The county was the fastest growing county in Georgia from 1890-1900 at 184.4 percent, according to U.S. Census Bureau records.

After hitting a population of nearly 30,000 in 1920, population growth began slowing down through the subsequent decades and inched up to 34,048 in 1960. A decade later, the population declined by almost 2,000 to 32,200 before rebounding 20 years later to 36,645. 

By 2010, Colquitt County’s population reached 45,498. The Census Bureau’s 2017 population estimate for the county was 45,835 — a growth of 1.35 percent during the seven-year period.

It’s hard to say what causes a place to expand so rapidly only for growth to slow to a crawl. Some areas see constant growth while others struggle not to lose people. In the SunLight Project coverage area — Valdosta, Tifton, Moultrie, Milledgeville, Dalton and Thomasville, Ga., and Live Oak, Fla. — city and county officials agree population trends can determine the health of a community.

It’s a balancing act. 

Community leaders seek growth, but they want to manage it so population doesn’t outgrow infrastructure and available resources.

Cities and counties in the SunLight Project region want to modernize to attract a younger, more technological generation while also taking care of the large, aging Boomer generation.

Attracting New People

For Colquitt, one major development that will have a positive impact is the opening of the new Philadelphia College of Medicine campus in Moultrie.

The campus is under construction on Tallokas Road but the first class of 55 med students is expected to start studies this time next year.

The college hopes to draw students from Colquitt and surrounding counties and North Florida, with an expectation of students staying in South Georgia after graduation.

Initially, about 20 teachers will be employed, plus support staff.

Adding about 55 students each year, the college will have more than 200 enrolled in four years plus the teaching staff, Cannon said. Younger people and those from other parts of the country may need more than just roads.

“Younger folks want restaurants,” Cannon said. “They want things to do in their spare time.”

He expects the Tallokas Road area to boom with more people and businesses. New teachers will also have an economic impact.

“You can just imagine that entire area growing,” Cannon said.

Lynn Williams and Shelley Zorn said there is also a healthy amount of growth present in Thomasville and Thomas County.

Zorn, Thomasville Payroll Development Authority executive director, said growth in a community is one of the first things a business or industry looks for because of an available workforce and a market to sell goods. 

Zorn and Williams said millennials want amenities.

“We definitely have that: places to shop and dine in downtown Thomasville,” Zorn said.

In addition to Thomasville’s enviable downtown, the city has bike trails and nighttime downtown musical events, Williams said.

“Authentic experiences — that’s why they like our brick streets,” she said.

Williams said Thomasville’s growth has been slow and steady. 

In 2000, the population of Thomasville was 18,166. A decade later, it was 18,413, according to the census bureau.

Thomas County had 42,739 residents in 2000 and 44,779 in 2010.

Zorn said Thomas County has good schools in two public school systems as community assets for attracting people.

Good schools and facilities for higher learning draw families — even some who grew up in the community, left and returned when starting a family, she said.

“The vast majority do not return,” Zorn said.

Millennials choose a community because of its amenities, then look for a job, Zorn said.

“Some create their own jobs or work from home,” she said. “So we’ve got to have a beautiful downtown.”

Williams said companies are putting a greater priority on quality of life and community development — both critical for talent recruitment — as they search for potential locations.

She said millennials will soon make up 75 percent of the total global workforce, but current projections show a sharp decline of workers in rural Georgia.

Successful rural communities should make themselves more attractive for millennials and Zoomers, also known as Generation Z.

“Rural communities must also ensure they have a vibrant and diverse quality of life with amenities and the right mix of housing,” Williams said.

Andrea Schruijer, executive director for Valdosta-Lowndes Development Authority, said attracting people to live in a community is a basic economic growth strategy.

When people move into a community, they buy homes, clothes, groceries and attend events.

“Population growth is a sign that people want to live, work and play in your area,” Schruijer said. “This is an important economic indicator for businesses. A community with declining or stagnant population cannot grow. The new economy shows that jobs follow people.”

Lowndes County Commission Chairman Bill Slaughter said the county population hasn’t declined but it hasn’t increased much either.

“There’s been a little bit of an increase but it’s been somewhat flat,” he said. “You need to have growth. It says a lot about a community.”

However, Slaughter said there are many attractions bringing people to live in Lowndes County, such as Wild Adventures Theme Park and Moody Air Force Base.

Even with these key attractions, Lowndes has hovered at less than 2 percent growth since the 1980s, according to the U.S. Census. This, Slaughter said, isn’t necessarily a bad thing.

“I think 3 percent is a healthy number,” he said. “That is growth that local governments and businesses can stay up with. That is an effort to maintain good, smart growth.”

At the heart of Lowndes is the City of Valdosta that was declared a metropolitan area when it hit more than 50,000 people several years ago.

The city hit a slump after the Great Recession hit in 2008, but from 2015, the city has been steadily growing, he said.

For the upcoming 2020 census, John Gayle, Valdosta mayor, said he believes the city will reach more than 60,000 residents.

Gayle said the city offers a high quality of life with a university, a hospital and a wide range of food and entertainment options, which is ideal for population growth.

“You can find just about anything you need in Valdosta,” Gayle said. “That’s the important thing. You don’t have to go outside of Valdosta to shop, to eat. We’re a convenience city.”

Valdosta has a campaign called “Love Where You Live” to make neighborhoods and the city more attractive. Valdosta City Council is developing a blight tax to get rid of abandoned buildings and is persistently working toward bringing public transportation to the city, according to city officials.

“We are always looking for new industry to bring here, as well,” Gayle said. “We want to make sure we continue to grow and offer the same services. We don’t want to get too big where we can’t take care of everybody.”

Handling Growth

In North Florida, Suwannee County is growing slowly but surely. While government officials want that growth to continue, they admit the slow and steady approach is key.

“It has to be managed population growth,” said Alvin Jackson, Suwannee County’s economic development director. “We don’t want to grow a weed patch — we want to grow a garden.”

One aspect that Suwannee County’s Board of County Commissioners has identified as a need to further stimulate growth is affordable housing options.

Jackson said a variety of housing options are necessary, including single family and multiple-family homes.

Those options would bring population and economic growth. New businesses and new jobs won’t be available if there is nowhere for those workers to live.

“The population growth needs to occur where there is housing,” Jackson said 

Ricky Gamble, the chairman of the Suwannee County Commission, said the average house in Live Oak was built in the 1960s or earlier.

“There is nothing new coming, so the housing options — if you want to live in or near Live Oak — just aren’t there,” Gamble said.

He said housing developments will bring jobs to construction-related businesses such as hardware stores and plumbing businesses.

“It is a double-edged sword because some industries won’t come without housing,” Jackson said. 

To get people to come and stay, Jackson said there has to be employment opportunities and a good education system in place.

Greater Dalton Chamber of Commerce President Rob Bradham said the county and city have handled population growth about as well as could be expected.

“From an infrastructure standpoint, the city and county did an excellent job of dealing not only with that population growth but also the manufacturing growth that was going on at the same time,” he said. “Our water, sewer, our transportation network and our electrical grid are all very, very strong.”

Whitfield County population has almost doubled during the past 48 years. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the county had an estimated population of 104,658 in 2017, up from 55,108 in 1970.

Dalton, Whitfield’s largest city and county seat, has seen its population grow almost as fast. 

It had an estimated 2017 population of 33,748, up from 18,872 in 1970.

Dalton population growth peaked during the 1990s, when it rose by about 28 percent. While the city population growth actually slowed to just less than 20 percent in the 2000s, the county’s population peaked in that decade, rising 21 percent.

Much of the area’s population growth was fueled by an influx of Hispanic workers, many of them immigrants, employed by local floor-covering mills. The Hispanic population rose from the low single digits to an estimated 49 percent of Dalton’s 2017 population and 35.5 percent of the county population.

“In many respects, we are still trying to figure out how to deal with that change in our demographics,” Bradham said. “It has been particularly challenging for our two school systems, but they have done a great job.

“Dalton and Whitfield County are at where our country will be over the next 20 years, and I think that has helped us get a step ahead. If you grew up here in the 1980s and 1990s, you are used to living in a multicultural society, and I think that’s going to be a positive.”

Bradham said the area’s Hispanic community has been particularly important in new business formation.

“We discovered that the Great Recession pretty much put a stop to new business starts in this community, with the exception of the Hispanic community,” he said. “The Hispanic community was still starting new businesses even during the recession and that has only expanded since the recession ended.”

Tifton City Manager Pete Pyrzenski said dealing with declining, stagnate and flat population growth is the new norm for a lot of local governments.

A declining or flat population growth is not what city and county officials want to see over time, and they are constantly looking for indicators, he said.

“(Tifton is) a regional hub for this area, and even though our nighttime population has not increased much, the daytime population has soared,” Pyrzenski said.

People are coming to Tifton to work, eat and play, he said. This means they are essentially getting a deeper benefit in sales tax collections.

Pyrzenski said the city wants to attract people to not only come for a good time but also put down roots. The necessary emphasis needs to be placed on available homes, quality services and stable taxes, which they have been doing during the last few years.

“I have not seen a movement to move to the county from the city, and in fact, there are a number of requests for annexations for subdivisions to be built so city services could be provided,” Pyrzenski said. “I really believe that today it is all what you want; convenience over country living. It is just a personal preference, but both are being sought after.”

The largest decade of growth for Tift County was between 1910 and 1920, with the second largest decade for growth being between 1940 and 1950.

The slowest growth period took place between 2010-14.

If the population growth percentage stayed at that percentage of 0.08 percent, the estimated population in 2018 would be 40,374. The current population is 40,598, which would indicate that population growth is slightly above the lowest growth percentage of 0.08.

The county was only founded in 1905, after the Southern and Florida Railway intersected the Brunswick and Western Railroad in 1888 and the town of Tifton grew up.

Angie Marin, president/chief executive officer of the Milledgeville Baldwin County Chamber of Commerce, said she believes Milledgeville-Baldwin County is a diverse community with similar percentages of white and black residents.

However, the county’s Asian, Hispanic and Indian populations are less than 2 percent, and its age demographics are indicative of a heavy secondary education community, with the average age being 34, Marin said. 

There is a substantial retirement population at nearly 16 percent, and that number is expected to increase during the next 12 years, possibly due to Lake Sinclair and the low cost of living in the area, she said.

The population in Baldwin County has decreased by about 1,200 people in the last five years, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

As of July 1, 2017, Baldwin County’s population is estimated to be 44,906. This is a 2 percent decrease from the population in 2010.

In the City of Milledgeville, the population as of July 1, 2017, is estimated to be 18,575, which is a 0.8 percent increase from the population in 2010.

In the county, more than half of the population is white and almost 43 percent of the population is black. The same percentages stand for the city.

Marin said it is imperative for a community to grow and flourish in regards to population, public services and education for that community to be a vital, successful one for future years.

A population shift, particularly a decline, can negatively affect a community and its businesses, she said.

“People will go where there are other people they can sell their goods to and socialize with,” she said.

Milledgeville isn’t alone in shifting demographics. Statistics show there is a population shift across the globe. Many rural areas are losing population, while a majority of metro areas are gaining residents, she said.

“The demographic changes our 11-county region will experience before 2030 has our retired population nearly doubling, while our millennial population only increases 8 percent,” Marin said. “I believe this gives our community an opportunity to really capitalize on our potential assets — retirees with expendable income and free time.”

The struggle to attract and retain a viable workforce will still be a main concern, she said. In the region, health care, professional, scientific, tech and construction industries are expected to make up the fastest growing sectors during the next 10 years.

With nearly 50 percent of the workforce retiring and the need to fill those positions, as well as more than 6,000 new positions, Marin said the area really needs to focus on attracting and retaining workers who fit the age and demographics those sectors require.

In addition to Tom Lynn, reporters Jessie Box, Eve Copeland, Kevin Hall, Patti Dozier and Taylor Hambree contributed to this report.

Thomas Lynn is a government and education reporter for The Valdosta Daily Times. He can be reached at (229)244-3400 ext. 1256